More Inflation Is Coming, Will House Prices Go Up or Down?
Monetary inflations has been almost solely responsible for house price go up.
As the Fed lowered the rates, and the banks lowered the down payment requirements and raised the percent of income one could apply to "house payment", then each progressive decade saw higher and higher house prices.
The fundamentals of the housing hadn't changed. During the 70s, every corner was cut to reduce costs. Later many techniques and innovations lowered the man hours needed to construct a house. So, each house actually costed less in materials and man-power. But, you never saw that in the price.
The other factors to increase the house price were foreign investors, especially China. They would go into high priced markets and buy a dwelling, and often not ever use it or rent it. Then large investment companies started cookie-cutter buying houses and renting them. Blackrock being the most notorious. Bidding up house prices even higher.
But, now the Fed has raised rates, and the housing market has pretty much stopped. The prices aren't going down by much yet, but no one is looking. Real Estate Agents are going out of business. Houses are sitting on the market for longer.
What will become of America's housing market?
Inflation. What is it?
When money is printed into existence, it has to go somewhere.
When the money supply is tightened, money gets sucked out of markets.
So, what is happening now?
We are seeing CPI inflation rip through the economy. Food is supposedly up 25%, but many people say it is closer to 50%. Fuel prices are up. Electric prices are up. This is supposedly because of all the stimulus money. But it may be because money was flowing out of housing and into commodities.
Blackrock had to shut down withdrawls from the REIT fund. (Real Estate Investment Trust) while the Fed increased the rates. Meaning, the money is flowing out of housing. And looking like it has been going into the stock market. (stock market go up)
The money printers are needed. The govern-cement doesn't survive without it. The dollar doesn't survive without it. So, where does this money go? So far, a lot has gone into war. War doesn't cause inflation, it causes deflation.
Forces on the housing market.
Except for demand from our "new migrant workforce" (invading army cough cough) every metric is down for houses. Especially suburban housing in democrap run cities.
- Boomers are moving into retirement homes or mortuaries. (25% of the homes will be coming onto the market in the next 10 years)
- All-causes-mortality is still going up
- Mostly fiery, "but peaceful" protests are coming to cities in force.
- Work from home (people moving out of expensive cities. And soon, all those empty commercial buildings are going to be changed into condos)
- Crime on the rise. Especially in blue cities, where it seems to be encouraged.
- Mortgage requirements being cranked up.
- Tons of housing being built, that might never see completion.
All of this adds up to a housing market that is set for a very long and painful fall.
So, over the next 10 years, i expect 50% of the houses to be put onto the market.
And, although the newest generations would love a house, there aren't enough of them, and they do not have the money to buy at these high prices. House prices will need to drop at least 50% in some areas for them to start really buying.
50%!!! When the housing market will start attracting buyers again is after the house prices have been cut in half. And if we continue to see more layoffs and higher interest rates, it may have to fall even lower.
Blackrock to the rescue?
One way house prices could continue to rise is if someone, who gets their money directly from the Fed, goes out and buys everything that come on the market.
And this would be companies like Blackrock.
In certain areas, Blackrock has been buying up realestate. Seemingly at no matter what the price. Very, very weird.
But this is not everywhere, and buying has seriously tapered off. (probably waiting for the fire sale, as the housing market crashes)
Blackrock (and the evil people behind them) are planning that humans will stay where they are. That they will continue living in cities. Especially their new 15 minute open air prisons.
Blackrock, by themselves, may support the high house prices in some areas. But i doubt they can do it in all areas. Just not enough people to send out to appraise and buy things. But, they may try.
Although i see lots of inflation in the future, i see houses dropping in price.
I truly see houses becoming unsellable in certain areas. No one buys in a place where everyone who can, is moving out of.
I see our population seriously taking a dip. Many people say that demographics are at the precipice of a cliff. We are no where near replacement levels. Especially not replacing the giant boomer generation.
All of these forces say to me that real estate is going to be in serious decline, even though tons of money printer action will be happening. Tons of money will be thrown at converting office space into residential space, that will never fill. The prices will just keep going down.
However, i could be wrong in the short term. The Fed is playing games, and they got to make things look good for the upcoming election. So, they may do something like giving POC almost free housing loans (like they did just before the real crash in 2008) which will boost the market for a little bit, and then put all these people in bankruptcy as the house market falls off a cliff.
In the long term, people are going to be leaving cities. Entire suburbs will be vacated. You will not be able to give away houses in such areas.
And before the housing market could recover (like it did years after 2008) i believe the entire landscape of "real estate" will change. We will no longer consider it the king's estate. We will consider it to be owned by the people taking care of it. Mortgages and other bankster games, will be long gone. The idea of the youngest generation paying more for their house than all the previous generations will seem abhorrent. (the least able to pay, should pay the most?)
Thusly, i expect a very deflationary housing market this next decade.