If House Prices Will Fall AND Bitcoin Prices Will Keep Going Up, When Should You Buy a House?

All of our metrics, our calculations, our iron-clad plans, are all based on fiat currency that can be borrowed at extremely low rates, and a continually tightening and over priced housing market. However, this is no longer the case. We are in a new era. Where new laws will be in effect.

The fiat, that we have called money has always gone down. And because banks need to lend more and more money, the house prices have always gone up.

But, now we have bitcoin. A deflationary currency.
And we have reached peak population. House prices will fall and fall.

Now that they tables have completely turned on the housing market, how do you play this?

Bitcoin go up?

It looks like we are passed the point where bitcoin could just fail. It is too big, been accepted by too many people. Adoption is eminent.

So, bitcoin price go up, into the future.
(bitcoin is deflationary, so its value will continue to go up.)
(The US dollar is inflationary, so its value will continue to go down)
So, bitcoin price go way, way up.

In the short term, we seem to be at the beginning of a bull run.
Except for the sudden, but inevitable, crash, we will see bitcoin go over $100k this year, and maybe $300k next year.

Suburban Housing Price Go DOWN

Everything is against housing prices going up
and many forces are pushing prices lower.

• Boomers are moving into cemeteries or assisted living homes. That is 25% of the houses about to be on the market.
• All Causes Mortality is still on the rise. This will end in many houses being empty.
• People will continue running from cities with crashing economies, low jobs, high crime
• Low birth rates, higher interest rates, higher property taxes.

All these things mean that there will be a glut of inventory and few people who will qualify for higher loans, and this equals the prices of houses coming down to until people can afford them. But, the glut of inventory will continue to rise, and people will eventually find themselves surrounded by empty houses. Like Weimar Marks, not even worth picking up.

Buying a house

Of course each of these macro market moves will take a while to happen. However the bitcoins per average house is falling, and will keep falling.

2023 15 bitcoin per house
2024   4 bitcoin per house
2025   1 bitcoin per house (maybe even 0.5 bitcoin, or 0.1 depending on how fast house prices are falling)

So, it would seem that holding onto your bitcoin and waiting is the best option. And if everything else stayed the same, that would be accurate, but all the other things are changing too.

Buying a suburban house is like throwing money out the window. However, you need a place to live. So, what is the best plans for the near future? How do you manage spending the least bitcoin, while maintaining your life? How much bitcoin do you have?

The really big thing about bitcoin continuing to go up is that at some point, you will have too much money. You will have more bitcoin than you can spend this lifetime. And all you need to do is not waste it, lose it, or blow it.

So, if you have 10 bitcoin, buying a suburban house, next year for 1 bitcoin may be a really good trade. If you are going to be able to stay there safely at least 4 years (till the next bull run). For ⅒th of your bag, you just got rid of a lot of headaches and stress out of your life. Such as:

• Insurances prices are sky-rocketing. If you have a mortgage, you have to pay it. (even if it isn't worth it)
• Banks failing and your mortgage being sold all over the place, or your note being called in.
• It is really nice not to have a mortgage payment. It is very freeing.

Thus, it may be well worth blowing some of your stash, to get that piece of mind (and a roof to sleep under). Especially since the rest of your stash will be worth 10x in 4 years.

Buying a homestead

Buying a homestead has a much different cost structure.

The good places to build a homestead will change over time, but it probably won't make an old homestead a bad homestead.

(as we get alternative electrical sources, being near utilities becomes a non-issue, and so, where to build a homestead also changes.)

A homestead takes a while to get functioning.
Maybe the first year you get chickens and a chicken coop (and some of the house built)
Second year you get in a garden, and more house.
Third year you are finally starting to be able to eat from your homestead (but no where near 100%)

So, getting started on a homestead as early as possible is a great plan.
Overextending yourself so you never have enough money to work on it, is conversely a bad plan.

With a crypto stash, it will get easier over time to buy a homestead, but it will also get harder to find a good homestead the longer you wait.

And it may become impossible to move out to the country, as in no gasoline, road blocks, police state, and country folk don't want no visitors. California may ban "residents" leaving (they already have you file income tax for 7 years after you leave, and are now working on a wealth tax if you leave, and soon…)

Things are really changing.

Money in the bank is no longer safe.
Rentals, or owning rental property may be a thing we can tell grandchildren about, with disbelief in their eyes.
Mortgages are finished.

So, start easing your mind into these new paradigms of money.
Because if you stay in the old, you will keep thinking your house is an asset, as its value evaporates, leaving you with nothing.

I strongly advice adding a homestead into your future plans, because food growing, distribution and grocery store chain are not going to be around for much longer. So, spending all your bitcorns on one, may be the best choice you make.

All images in this post are my own original creations.